In professional services, knowing where your next project is coming from isn’t just helpful—it’s essential for sustainable growth. But a pipeline filled with potential work doesn’t always translate into revenue. The real challenge? Understanding how much of your forecasted work actually converts and ensuring you have enough bids in market to meet your financial targets.

One of the most effective ways to do this is by tracking your pipeline on a three-month horizon.

The Three-Month Test: Forecast vs. Reality

Let’s say it’s 1 July. At that point, what was the value of your unweighted forecast for September? Now fast forward—September has ended, the invoices are out, and the revenue is finalised.

👉 How much of that original July forecast converted into actual revenue?

If you’re not measuring this, you’re making decisions in the dark.

A three-month view gives you a real-time benchmark for evaluating pipeline effectiveness. It ensures that your business isn’t just tracking potential work, but also understanding the patterns of conversion, gaps in forecasting, and where business development efforts need adjustment.

Why Three Months?

📆 It’s a meaningful yet manageable timeframe – Long enough to account for typical go-to-market cycles (write the new business and start invoicing), yet short enough to provide actionable insights for course correction.

📉 It exposes forecasting accuracy issues – Are you consistently over- or underestimating? A three-month lookback helps identify where expectations and reality diverge.

⚖️ It forces better decision-making on resource planning – If your three-month pipeline is weak, hiring and investment decisions need to be reconsidered before it’s too late. Most businesses can recover cost of changes within a 3 month timeframe.

How Much Work Do You Actually Need in Market?

A critical (and often overlooked) step in this process is determining the revenue value of proposals you need in market to achieve the income required to run the business.

Think of it this way:

📊 If you need $1M in revenue per month and your average proposal-to-win rate is 33%, you need at least $3M in proposals in market at any given time to hit your target.

This formula helps you back-calculate the volume of proposals required based on:

• Your target monthly/quarterly revenue
• Your average win rate (percentage of proposals that convert to revenue)
• The time lag between proposal and conversion (how long it takes for a proposal to turn into billable work)

Challenge: Measure It by Sector, Geography, or Principal

If you really want to improve your forecasting, don’t just measure overall pipeline conversion—break it down:

📌 By Sector: Does one sector or client type consistently underperform against forecasts while another converts reliably? Are certain markets more volatile?

📌 By Geography: Do some regions convert better than others? What external factors (competition, regulation, economic conditions) are at play?

📌 By Principal or Lead Partner: Are certain leaders better at securing and converting work? If so, what can be learned and shared across the firm?

Turning Insights Into Action

Once you’ve measured your three-month unweighted forecast vs. actual revenue, take these steps:

🔹 Refine your forecasting methods – Adjust probability weightings based on historical conversion rates rather than gut feel.
🔹 Align business development and delivery teams – Ensure business development efforts focus on work that’s most likely to convert.
🔹 Calculate and track your proposal gap – If your win rate suggests you need $3M in proposals to hit $1M in revenue, ensure you’re consistently putting enough work into the pipeline. Do you need to review what you are bidding?
🔹 Use data to drive accountability – If certain sectors, geographies, or Principals consistently fall short of their forecasts, dig into the reasons why.

Making Your Pipeline Work for You

The best professional services firms don’t just track revenue—they predict it with confidence. By regularly reviewing your three-month forecast vs. actual revenue and ensuring you have the right volume of proposals in market, you can sharpen your business strategy, improve operational planning, and ensure that future growth is built on data, not hope.

So, here’s the challenge:

👉 What did your business expect three months ago, and how did it actually perform?
👉 Do you have enough proposals in market today to meet your revenue goals in three months?

If you don’t know the answer, it’s time to start measuring.